Mahmood declines to put cost on care worker settlement climbdown

Home Secretary Shabana Mahmood has declined to specify how much it will cost to scrap her plan to make foreign care workers already in the UK wait longer to qualify for permanent settlement, saying detailed figures will be published when the changes are put before Parliament. Mahmood had originally proposed doubling the wait for settlement from five years to 10 for most migrants, with some facing a 15-year wait. The Home Office suggested the policy could save £10bn. But after a backlash from some Labour MPs, she announced revised plans on Monday under which some foreign care workers will continue to wait five years, while others will be able to seek a five-year extension. Asked about the cost of the revised plans, Mahmood told BBC Radio 4's Today programme that they would still save "billions" because workers in other sectors would have to wait longer. In an interview recorded on Monday evening, she said the changes represented "savings in the billions" to the Department for Work and Pensions in people not claiming benefits. She argued the cohort of care workers not currently doing care work was the most likely to fall back on the state, and that delaying their settlement would prevent claims. The Home Office's £10bn figure came from a March estimate of the net lifetime cost of care workers and their adult dependants expected to settle between 2026 and 2030 under existing rules. It was based on an estimate by the Migration Advisory Committee of how much an average migrant care worker would cost the UK in benefits and public services over their lifetime. While Mahmood would not give a new savings figure, Home Office minister Anna Turley told BBC Breakfast it would be "at least £1bn over the next couple of years in terms of welfare savings", adding that further calculations would be done. The Conservatives said the "U-turn" would cost the UK billions of pounds. Under the revised plans, care workers who arrived in the UK before May 2025 and earned at least £25,000 a year will continue to qualify for settlement after five years, alongside some other groups. Those who do not qualify will be able to apply for a new five-year visa and then seek settlement. Just over 500,000 people will now be delayed from gaining permanent residency, down from almost 800,000 before Monday's changes. Some 1.9 million people are expected to settle in the UK between 2026 and 2030, according to the Home Office. Indefinite leave to remain, also known as settlement, gives a person the right to live, work and study in the UK indefinitely, apply for benefits if eligible, and apply for British citizenship. The £10bn figure has been criticised by the Institute for Public Policy Research, which found a £115bn addition to UK public finances under current settlement rules. "Public debate has focused heavily on the costs of recent migration, but this is not the whole story," IPPR associate director Marley Morris said. Mahmood denied the move was a U-turn, saying a public consultation had produced a "transformative package" that "strikes the right balance". She also declined to say whether Prime Minister Andy Burnham had told her to change tack on proposals she had put forward in November under his predecessor, Sir Keir Starmer. She had faced criticism within Labour for retrospectively changing rules for migrant workers already in the UK. Housing Secretary Angela Rayner said it amounted to "chang[ing] the goalposts", while several MPs described the retrospective approach as "un-British" and warned it could worsen skills shortages, particularly in the care sector.